By Politiko staff
The horse-trading for Vice President Sara Duterte’s conviction has reportedly begun even with her impeachment trial barely out of the starting gate.
The Senate Impeachment Court is only on Day 16 of a trial calendar that could stretch to 92 days, but Iskoopers told Politiko that efforts are allegedly underway to lock in the 16 votes needed to convict Duterte.
The math, however, is far from straightforward.
The Senate majority is composed of 13 senators—three votes short of the number required for conviction. The 11-member minority bloc could therefore hold the key to Duterte’s fate.
But the minority itself is operating with a depleted bench. Of its 11 members, Senators Jinggoy Estrada and Senator Rodante Marcoleta are currently detained, while Senator Ronald “Bato” Dela Rosa remains in hiding.
That makes every available vote—and every potential defection—all the more crucial.
At the center of the supposed numbers game is Senate Impeachment Court Presiding Officer Francis “Chiz” Escudero, who is reportedly trying to persuade Estrada to vote for Duterte’s conviction.
“Given Jinggoy’s current predicament, don’t be surprised if he abandons Sara and votes to convict,” a source said.
There is one major complication: Estrada is currently behind bars over plunder and graft charges linked to the flood control scandal, raising questions over whether he could even be allowed to leave detention to cast his vote should the trial reach judgment.
But those keen on knocking Duterte out of the 2028 presidential race may have other potential converts to work on.
An Iskooper said the minority bloc may not be as solid as it appears, particularly with some of its members grappling with legal and political headaches of their own.
“The Villars and Loren could still be flipped if enough pressure is applied. They have their own problems to worry about,” a source said.
Senators Mark and Camille Villar are facing complaints involving alleged market manipulation, insider trading and misleading disclosures over Villar Land, stemming from the company’s reported ₱1.33-trillion asset valuation for 2024.
Senator Loren Legarda, meanwhile, is under investigation by the Office of the Ombudsman along with her son, Batangas Rep. Leandro Leviste, over graft and plunder complaints involving roughly ₱10 billion to ₱10.44 billion in solar energy projects and alleged franchise violations tied to Solar Para sa Bayan.
And if the legal stick fails to move enough votes, Iskoopers claimed there could also be a billion-peso carrot waiting on the other side.
One senator, according to an Iskooper, has supposedly made clear that the decision could come down to simple arithmetic—and the right incentive.
“One senator reportedly asked Chiz how many votes they already have. If the count reaches 15, that senator is ready to become the 16th vote against Sara,” the Iskooper said.
With the trial still far from the finish line, the testimony inside the impeachment court may only be half the battle. The other fight, it seems, is already over who gets to 16 first.—Politiko.com.ph
